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	<title>Bad Idea magazine &#187; stimulus</title>
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	<link>http://www.badidea.co.uk</link>
	<description>Bad Idea is an invaluable source of information and quality journalism about cultural and economic innovation in Britain and beyond.</description>
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		<title>Electioneering Pokemon Battle Starts With George Osborne vs Peter Mandelson</title>
		<link>http://www.badidea.co.uk/2009/09/electioneering-pokemon-battle-starts-with-george-osborne-vs-peter-mandelson/</link>
		<comments>http://www.badidea.co.uk/2009/09/electioneering-pokemon-battle-starts-with-george-osborne-vs-peter-mandelson/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Sep 2009 11:45:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jack Roberts</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Hot Money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bad idea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ben beaumont-thomas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Conservatives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cuts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Miliband]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electioneering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[general election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[George Osborne]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gordon Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keynes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Liam Byrne]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Liberal Democrats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Mandelson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pokemon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Skidelsky]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stimulus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vince Cable]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[William Keegan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badidea.co.uk/?p=5933</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.badidea.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/george-osborne.jpg" ></a>Political point-scoring never really goes away, but with the general election looming inevitably next year the whole &#8220;cuts&#8221; saga has taken on an extra cattiness&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.badidea.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/george-osborne.jpg" ><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-5934" title="george-osborne" src="http://www.badidea.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/george-osborne.jpg" alt="" width="238" height="192" /></a>Political point-scoring never really goes away, but with the general election looming inevitably next year the whole &#8220;cuts&#8221; saga has taken on an extra cattiness that has left many in Whitehall with ocular scratching. Last week we had George Osborne accusing Gordon Brown of lying to the people over his spending promises &#8211; now we&#8217;ve got <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0caf32d2-a645-11de-8c92-00144feabdc0.html"  target="_blank">Labour top brass lavishing scorn on the accusations</a>.</p>
<p>Osborne went considerably off the leash with his claims, saying that Labour <a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6841915.ece"  target="_blank">secretly planned to raise income tax</a>, and implying that civil servants had, in allowing the plans to be forged, given up something of their political impartiality. Stung, the servants told Osborne to drop the Hardy Boys schtick &#8211; the &#8220;secret plans&#8221; were actually in the public domain as part of the Budget, and the increase in income tax was tied to the ongoing growth in the economy.</p>
<p>He&#8217;s set in motion the kind of political Pokemon battle we get every election cycle, where each side fires its rhetorical magic at the other in turn, until one of them emerges the victor &#8211; so much for <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/g20-summit/6140804/George-Osborne-electioneering-is-putting-confidence-in-Britains-economy-at-risk.html"  target="_blank">Osborne&#8217;s recent condemnation of electioneering</a>. But with his vicious fireball deflected by the backroom staff, he was left dangerously exposed over the weekend. Mandelson, I choose you!</p>
<p>The business secretary and veteran political warhorse described Osborne thus: &#8221;Like a boy in a man&#8217;s job&#8221;. Saucer of milk, etc etc, but while we wait for the homophobic reaction that dogs Mandy&#8217;s every move (let alone when he&#8217;s talking about boys and men) David Miliband has also slagged Osborne, describing him as &#8220;not a serious person&#8221;. He <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1214958/Whos-lying-Insults-fly-Labour-Tories-3p-tax-storm.html"  target="_blank">described</a> the Tories&#8217; tactics as &#8220;juvenile and student politics&#8230;the politics of the big lie and the big smear&#8221;. Treasury Chief Secretary Liam Byrne <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1214958/Whos-lying-Insults-fly-Labour-Tories-3p-tax-storm.html"  target="_blank">added</a>: &#8220;this truth problem for Mr Osborne is becoming a pattern of behaviour&#8221;. Vince Cable meanwhile has managed to get mileage out of both his opponents in a single sentence, <a href="http://www.metro.co.uk/news/article.html?Cable_set_to_rap_Osborne_over_tax_row&amp;in_article_id=740948&amp;in_page_id=34"  target="_blank">saying</a>: &#8220;The public doesn&#8217;t need George Osborne&#8217;s imaginary secret documents or conspiracy theories to work out that the public finances are in a bad shape&#8221;. </p>
<p>The Tories were also hurt by the Lib Dems rooting through their post-election plans and finding over <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1214554/Tories-accused-50-billion-policy-cover-bankrupt-Britain.html"  target="_blank">£50bn of spending pledges</a> that don&#8217;t really chime with Osborne&#8217;s prudence &#8211; new-school policies like high-speed rail sit next to classic Tory stances like cutting inheritance tax.</p>
<p>While it&#8217;s all good fun to see the internecine bitchery of The Hills get transplanted onto the UK&#8217;s political scene, this all seems like a case of electioneering distorting the genuinely necessary action. Cuts will be an inevitable part of the next government, whoever it is &#8211; the public discomfort at a rocketing deficit can&#8217;t be ignored. But the need to score points off and differentiate themselves from Labour has drawn the Conservatives, and <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8266260.stm"  target="_blank">to an even greater extent the Lib Dems</a>, towards a economic model based on arch prudence. This is framed for maximum gain as brave and wise, positioned opposite Labour&#8217;s supposed recklessness with the public balance sheet.</p>
<p>But it&#8217;s too soon to make cuts, and using them as such a hot political topic is dangerous; fiscal stimulus needs to carry on for some time yet. Keynesian economists like <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/6209356/George-Osborne-fails-to-mind-the-output-gap.html"  target="_blank">Robert Skidelsky</a> and <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/sep/20/keegan-tories-cuts-public-spending"  target="_blank">William Keegan</a> have written over the weekend about the importance of letting fiscal stimulus continue, Skidelsky with a simplicity that is either charmingly optimistic or dangerously reductive depending on your leanings: &#8220;Had the Government given everyone a spending voucher of £500 last Christmas, the chances are we would have had no output gap and full employment today!&#8221;</p>
<p>But for all the weirdly mechanistic and presumptive nature of Keynes, his ideas are still valid, and to ignore them for brief political gain would be disastrous. The recent crowing about the end of the recession, along with the City-minded political economists, means that talk of cuts might not seem too premature, but if the stimulus is cut back before much of the country has had time to feel it, then any future government could find itself with a hole where its income tax should be. Once the economy is genuinely growing again, with consumer spending steady, then we can start worrying about the deficit. At the moment, all the talk of cuts is only benefitting political strategists.</p>
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		<title>KPMG Renewable Energy Report Not Too Great For UK</title>
		<link>http://www.badidea.co.uk/2009/05/kpmg-renewable-energy-report-not-too-great-for-uk/</link>
		<comments>http://www.badidea.co.uk/2009/05/kpmg-renewable-energy-report-not-too-great-for-uk/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 12:45:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jack Roberts</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Green Rush]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bad idea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ben beaumont-thomas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KPMG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[M&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mergers and acquisitions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NIMBY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[offshore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[renewable energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stimulus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wind]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wind farm]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badidea.co.uk/?p=5577</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.badidea.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/kpmg-renewable-energy.jpg" ></a>Just yesterday <a href="http://www.badidea.co.uk/2009/05/edf-battles-miliband-over-nuclear-investment/"  target="_blank">we were lamenting</a> how even China, where Hu Jintao probably snuggles up to a lump of coal every night because he&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.badidea.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/kpmg-renewable-energy.jpg" ><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-5578" title="KPMG Renewable Energy Report Not Too Great For UK" src="http://www.badidea.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/kpmg-renewable-energy-475x356.jpg" alt="KPMG Renewable Energy Report Not Too Great For UK" width="266" height="199" /></a>Just yesterday <a href="http://www.badidea.co.uk/2009/05/edf-battles-miliband-over-nuclear-investment/"  target="_blank">we were lamenting</a> how even China, where Hu Jintao probably snuggles up to a lump of coal every night because he just loves it that much, has announced it&#8217;s investing $440bn in wind energy, while we get £525m, plus some promises about more nuclear and carbon capture. And now it seems that the private investment that Britain&#8217;s basing its post-carbon energy plans on might not even be particularly forthcoming. Did someone just say &#8220;sick man of Europe&#8221;?</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.kpmgglobalenergyinstitute.com/documents/GEI/51920091537The%20Winds%20of%20Change_KPMG_2009.pdf"  target="_blank">this report by KPMG</a>, they outline their research into the renewable energy mergers and acquisitions market; they surveyed 200 senior executives from &#8220;power-generating businesses, renewable energy suppliers, energy distributors, oil and gas majors and financial investors&#8221;. And for the UK, the results aren&#8217;t that great. Only Malta and Luxembourg generate less renewable energy than us at the moment, but we&#8217;ve got the highest targets for 2020. And while Germany and Italy earmarked over $100bn in their financial stimulus programs for tackling climate change, we only managed $30bn. So we&#8217;re mostly hoping that private investment, the great third way, will want to set up chez Blighty. But investors would rather go elsewhere first.</p>
<p>The problem first of all is the fact that the UK is encouraging investment in sites and setting up wind farms from scratch, which is seen as too risky and massive an investment at the moment: &#8220;Assets actually generating electricity, rather than shares based on promises in the wind, are what investors are seeking&#8221;. In other words, investment in big capital projects is likely to happen only by being funded through a massive company that&#8217;s sold off assets and is cash rich, has amassed bargains and is milking revenue, or has the clout and willingness to take on a big loan. 70% of smaller companies surveyed said it was harder to secure financing at the moment.</p>
<p>And more generally, the UK just isn&#8217;t as attractive to investors as other parts of the world. 42% of respondents said they were going to invest in the US next year, 24% in India, and 22% in China, but only 13% of them said they&#8217;d be investing in the UK. Suddenly <a href="http://www.newenergyfocus.com/do/ecco.py/view_item?listid=1&amp;listcatid=119&amp;listitemid=2540"  target="_blank">Darling&#8217;s assertion</a> that we&#8217;re &#8220;the world leader in offshore wind power generation&#8221; seems like a poisoned chalice. Considering an offshore wind farm is much more expensive to set up than an onshore one, investors in the current climate are far less likely to invest in offshore, if they invest at all. The UK is going to have to get over its NIMBY attitude to onshore wind farms, or face a reluctance towards any investment at all.</p>
<p>Still, as Deutsche Bank&#8217;s Brett Olsher <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a06bc360-4a14-11de-8e7e-00144feabdc0.html"  target="_blank">notes in the FT</a>: &#8220;In the UK, we&#8217;ve alreadt seen high levels of M&amp;A activity in the nuclear energy space. This is where the development has been, and will continue to be in the medium term.&#8221; So at least Miliband&#8217;s beloved nuclear plants might get built, if nothing else.</p>
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		<title>After The G20 Summit, Where Do We Go Next?</title>
		<link>http://www.badidea.co.uk/2009/04/after-the-g20-summit-where-do-we-go-next/</link>
		<comments>http://www.badidea.co.uk/2009/04/after-the-g20-summit-where-do-we-go-next/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 2009 11:03:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jack Roberts</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Hot Money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angela Merkel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bad idea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[barack obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ben beaumont-thomas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bob geldof]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bretton Woods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[china]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dmitry Medvedev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doha]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[G20]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gordon Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hu Jintao]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nicolas Sarkozy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protectionism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stimulus]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badidea.co.uk/?p=5271</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.badidea.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/g20.png" ></a>The Obamas leave the UK today <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/g20-summit/5098549/G20-Summit-Barack-Obama-grounded-by-London-fog.html"  target="_blank">(fog permitting)</a>, and in their wake lies <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-g20-queen3-2009apr03,0,6437560.story"  target="_blank">a touchy-feely Queen with an iPod</a>, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/g20-summit/5095488/FTSE-100-leads-stock-market-rally-as-economic-data-not-G20-gives-hope.html"&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.badidea.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/g20.png" ><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-5272" title="After The G20 Summit, Where Do We Go Next?" src="http://www.badidea.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/g20-475x265.png" alt="After The G20 Summit, Where Do We Go Next?" width="333" height="186" /></a>The Obamas leave the UK today <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/g20-summit/5098549/G20-Summit-Barack-Obama-grounded-by-London-fog.html"  target="_blank">(fog permitting)</a>, and in their wake lies <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-g20-queen3-2009apr03,0,6437560.story"  target="_blank">a touchy-feely Queen with an iPod</a>, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/g20-summit/5095488/FTSE-100-leads-stock-market-rally-as-economic-data-not-G20-gives-hope.html"  target="_blank">a rocketing stock market</a>, and G20 with a lot of promises to keep. </p>
<p>So Berlusconi <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/03/g20-sarkozy-obama-hotel-talks"  target="_blank">turned on the cheeky-chappy charm</a> to retina-scorching wattage, <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/4b3a59cc-1fe6-11de-a1df-00144feabdc0.html"  target="_blank">Stephen Harper missed out on the official photo because he was in the toilet</a>, and <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a7c27658-1fe5-11de-a1df-00144feabdc0.html"  target="_blank">Dmitry Medvedev said</a>, worryingly: &#8220;The speed with which we are acting at least makes me think that many of the decisions we are taking will be pretty effective&#8221; &#8211; just do everything as fast as possible, and everything will turn out just fine, was the Russian&#8217;s prez&#8217;s advice.</p>
<p>But while Medvedev is happy that things are going quickly, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/03/world/europe/03iht-host.html"  target="_blank">the press impressed that Gordon Brown looks &#8220;statesmanlike&#8221;</a>, and investors convinced enough by the numbers with lots of zeroes on the end to start trading on the markets again, the confidence borne off big gestures is going to deflate rapidly unless concrete action is taken. And at the moment, some of the G20 agreements are little more than rhetoric Sellotaped onto keen hopes and already-existing promises.</p>
<p>Witness: world leaders <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b1f59808-1fb3-11de-a1df-00144feabdc0.html"  target="_blank">&#8220;preparing for a conclusion in the Doha trade round&#8221;</a>, referring to the universal agreements on global trade starting up again that should have been made three months ago; a free-market expert interviewed by the FT called this &#8220;a non-commital commitment&#8221;. It allows the creeping protectionism that we saw recently to carry on creeping.</p>
<p>Or the fact that the US, Saudi Arabia, Japan, China and the EU <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a7c27658-1fe5-11de-a1df-00144feabdc0.html"  target="_blank">allowed existing pledges of cash to be repackaged</a> into £500bn given to the IMF to lend to countries facing a liquidity crisis &#8211; the whole sum is eyepopping, but it hasn&#8217;t exactly taken much diplomacy to cobble it together.</p>
<p>More encouraging, though obviously in need of ongoing fleshing-out, are promises on regulatory reform. They include a <a href="http://www.investmentexecutive.com/client/en/News/DetailNews.asp?Id=48864&amp;cat=8&amp;IdSection=8&amp;PageMem=&amp;nbNews=&amp;IdPub="  target="_blank">Financial Stability Board</a>, a G20-wide body designed to maintain tighter regulation across the whole sector. Despite a tangible whiff of bureaucracy about it, it&#8217;s certainly what&#8217;s needed. And it also forms a convenient jumping off point for the real success story of the conference, Nicolas Sarkozy. </p>
<p>He and Angela Merkel formed a tag-team of pro-regulation <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aCnNyaxDphto&amp;refer=home"  target="_blank">a couple of weeks back</a>, and carried it through into the summit (despite <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/31/world/europe/31europe.html?ref=europe"  target="_blank">Sarkozy thinking Merkel&#8217;s accent is a hoot</a>). Sarkozy <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/31/g20-summit-nicolas-sarkozy"  target="_blank">threatened to walk out if the regulation reforms weren&#8217;t carried out</a>, and when they were, he capitalised, saying &#8220;Ango-Saxon&#8221;-style free markets, born at <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system"  target="_blank">Bretton Woods</a>, were over. He&#8217;s been calling for a new form of regulation <a href="http://news.smh.com.au/business/crisis-flags-end-of-free-market-sarkozy-20080926-4o9a.html"  target="_blank">since the crisis began</a>, though at the time of his election <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/34991-has-france-joined-the-pro-market-revolution"  target="_blank">he was rather more pro-free market</a>.</p>
<p>But as well as cleverly casting essential reforms as being all his idea, Mighty Mouse took on Hu Jintao as well this week. Sarkozy met the Dalai Lama last year, <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47a6d574-1eb0-11de-b244-00144feabdc0.html"  target="_blank">much to the anger of China</a>, and Sarko was also pushing this week for the publication of a blacklist of tax havens, to include Hong Kong and Macau; in the end, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&amp;sid=atmk0XAJTNhU&amp;refer=asia"  target="_blank">good ol&#8217; Obama weighed in and brokered a compromise between Sarko and Jintao</a>. As happened so often in the summit, there was an agreement to merely promise action against tax havens, and just &#8220;note&#8221; the blacklist rather than endorse it. Expect a lot more diplomatic bickering over this issue in the coming weeks.</p>
<p>Sarko <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/03/nicolas-sarkozy-barack-obama"  target="_blank">is now looking forward to his private audience with Obama</a> in Strasbourg &#8211; after getting battered over his reaction to the financial crisis, he&#8217;s now appearing strong and cruising in Obama&#8217;s golden slipstream. But unfortunately he&#8217;s yet to win over the last crucial giant on the geopolitical landscape &#8211; <a href="http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/02/g-20-dispatch-an-interview-with-musician-bob-geldof/"  target="_blank">Bob Geldof, who said</a>: &#8220;Let Sarkozy walk out. It’s not important&#8221;.</p>
<p>Geldof actually raises quite an interesting point. Sarkozy led a successful charge against free markets, leading to a more tightly regulated system. Yet the other major prong of the summit is to reinstate a global marketplace, and resist protectionism. Steering the G20 between these two poles is the major task over the coming weeks.</p>
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