Recession Is Over, Semantically Speaking

The financial services industry is like a nervous lover – if you pump it full of praise and confidence, it perks up and performs, but the second it starts to feel like something’s going wrong, it panics and can take ages to get them feeling good about themselves again. Therefore when people start talking about the end of the recession, it can be a self-fulfilling prophecy that sees the recession actually end thanks to the renewed confidence in the sector. In theory anyway. And that’s what’s potentially going on right now.

The first wave of hesitant calling of the end came in May, with Jean-Claude Trichet, George Soros and others saying an inflection point had been reached, with the economy heading back upwards. A quarter later, and people are saying that the recession is genuinely, officially over (there needs to be two quarters of consecutive GDP growth for it to be semantically, if not realistically, laid to rest). Ben Bernanke, US Fed chairman and recent receiver of mad love and props, said yesterday it is “very likely over”, with a reported rise in consumer spending seeming to underline his soothsaying.

Meanwhile, “arc of insolvency” members Scotland are saying they’re on the way up too, Lloyds Scotland’s chief economist Donald MacRae claims; Mervyn King says all’s well south of the border too, claiming “there are now signs that growth has resumed in the third quarter”; Mandy gave his optimistic two cents last week in China; these folks that the Guardian memorably interviewed at the beginning of the year seem to be on the up; and Wachovia’s senior economist Mark Vitner has said that we’re firmly in recovery mode though added, while upholding the tradition of dodgy meteorological metaphors beloved of economists: “Technically, it’s not freezing but it’s still pretty darn cold outside and you see ice everywhere”.

Yes, that’s the ice of real-term economic misery he’s clumsily referring to – while all this is pretty impressive given the dire straits we were in this time last year, unemployment is still a major inhibitor on quality of life and consumer spending. While the City is looking at the GDP growth, the likes of Next are looking at the high street: “we anticipate that the public sector deficit will become the dominant influence on the economy, bringing with it the combined downside risks of further increases in taxation and cuts in government expenditure”. Brown’s use of the c-word yesterday means that things like tax credits and general welfare could be cut, and taxes brought up to fight the massive deficit, thus impacting on people’s spending power. Meanwhile Chris Dodd, head of the US Senate banking committee, bluntly burst Bernanke’s balloon, saying “I don’t think it’s over”.

So basically until you see banks are overleveraging themselves into multinational deals, and people blithely acquiring 110% mortgages and living on credit cards, you can assume we’re still in the “bust” bit of the cycle.

Posted by Ben Beaumont-Thomas in Hot Money | September 16, 2009 2:38PM |